How To Reverse Prosperity In A Decade

From Jo Nova- the truth about “free power from nature”

Electricity prices fell for forty years in Australia, then renewables came…

Electricity prices declined for forty years. Obviously that had to stop.

Here’s is the last 65 years of Australian electricity prices — indexed and adjusted for inflation. During the coal boom, Australian electricity prices declined decade after decade.  As renewables and national energy bureaucracies grew, so did the price of electricity. Must be a coincidence…

Today all the hard-won masterful efficiency gains of the fifties, sixties and seventies have effectively been reversed in full.

Indexed Real Consumer Electricity Prices, 1955-2017. Graph.

Indexed Real Consumer Electricity Prices, Australia, 1955-2017.

For most of the 20th Century the Australian grid was hotch potch of separate state grids and mini grids. (South Australia was only connected in 1990). In 1998 the NEM (National Energy Market) began, a feat that finally made bad management possible on a large scale. Though after decades of efficiency gains, Australians would have to wait years to see new higher “world leading” prices. For the first years of the NEM prices stayed around $30/MWh.

But sooner or later  a national system is a sitting duck for one small mind to come along and truly muck things up.

Please spread this graph far and wide.

Thanks to a Dr Michael Crawford who did the original, excellent graph.

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The Great Barnaby Joyce Outrage- He’s Not Gay

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So the great posturing over Barnaby Joyce’s great sin has been going on for a week. As far as I can tell his greatest moral failing seems to be being Barnaby Joyce.

Also he is not gay or gender diverse. What would the reaction be if his lover was actually a man or a non-binary person of no gender distinctiveness? He would be applauded for his “courage” and progressiveness. “Love is love” they would say. We know that because it has happened dozens of times in the past- although obviously not to Barnaby. Nobody offers fake sympathy to the abandoned wife and children because the person is being true to themselves etc.

I’m not sure what the Opposition is getting upset about because every day it’s something different.

Is the problem that it was a staff member? Or that he found her a different position in somebody else’s office after the affair started? Or that he declared that he was receiving an apartment in Armidale rent free? Or that he opposed gay “marriage” and now it’s payback time?

My position is that everyone who leaves his or her spouse for a more appealing (usually younger) model is a creep. Everyone who breaks their marriage vows and has a sexual relationship with anyone other than their spouse is a creep.

If being a creep disqualified a person from high office we would have nobody in Parliament.

 

Reflection on Mark 1:29-39

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Passage: https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Mark+1.29-39

Scripture

Jesus healed all kinds of terrible diseases and forced out many demons.

Observation

Jesus and His disciples leave the synagogue to go back to Simon and Andrew’s house. Simon’s mother-in-law is sick with a fever. Jesus heals her and immediately she gets out of bed to serve them a meal.

That evening all who are sick or have demons are brought to Jesus. He heals all kinds of terrible diseases and casts out many demons.

Early in the morning Jesus goes away to pray. Simon and his friends go to find Him because the crowds are looking for Jesus. Jesus then begins travelling all through Galilee preaching the message of the Kingdom.

Application

Jesus has not changed. He is still the same yesterday, today and for ever. Therefore He is still healing people of all kinds of diseases and setting them free of evil spirits.

In the West we tend to put our trust in doctors and drugs rather than in Jesus. When we get sick our first response is to reach for the paracetamol and call the doctor. With relatively cheap health care this is cost free most of the time.

I am thankful for modern medicine because it relieves so much suffering. But for christians, our dependence on health care systems diminishes our trust in God and therefore can become an idol to us.

I rarely catch a cold or flu because as soon as symptoms arise I claim healing in Jesus’ name. Others sneeze and feel miserable but I am victorious. Yet I take tablets every day for high blood pressure and I am yet to get a victory over that.

I have seen miraculous healings over many years. I know that Jesus still heals every kind of terrible disease. Praise the Lord!

Prayer

Lord Jesus you are still in the business of healing diseases and casting out demons. Please help me to grow in faith to believe that you will heal my diseases. Amen.

#ChangeTheDate Is Against Indigenous People Not For Them

From xyz.com

Quote of the Day: #ChangeTheDate push coming from Greens, not aboriginals

 

Jacinta Price, an aboriginal activist and politican, has been all over TV, the airwaves and social media, defending Australia Day against inner-city based left-wing elites. She makes the point, as I have seen from a number of aboriginal leaders, that the push to #ChangeTheDate of Australia Day is not coming from Aboriginal people themselves.

About a week ago she shared this letter she received from an aboriginal woman. It has been seen by hundreds of thousands of people, and deserves to be seen by more. You can read the full letter at Price’s Facebook page here.

Here are a few choice excerpts:

“Over the last few days we have seen The Greens party cause a huge division between us, Indigenous pitted against Indigenous, Black against whites in what I can say is some of the most vile and racist hate speech I’ve ever seen, those defending the Greens have played right into their hands like the puppets you are, you think you’re smart but you’re not. Have you ever read the story of The Pied piper? The Greens are the piper and you’re the rats.

“I see so much screaming and crying over the date, the 26th of January, the national day of Australia, Australia Day but not the correct date of the first fleet arriving, more fool you. So foolish to believe that the people crying for changing the date actually care about you? They don’t care about you! They care about division, widening the gap not closing it, a fool is easily parted from his family.”

“You cry and you scream about changing the date while there are children like me, little boys and girls living the same life I did as a child, living in constant fear of violence and sexual abuse. No, white man didn’t oppress me, white man didn’t commit those repulsive abhorrent acts, white man failed me in the way that he failed to take me and my brother away from my mother. But we mustn’t talk about the real issues effecting the indigenous community to this day! To this very day! Is it racist to speak out? NO! You professional victims cry about a date while real victims suffer horrors only seen in nightmares or in a movie, no, that’s not accurate, the greatest horror writer on the planet would cringe if he heard my story, the story of children still suffering today.

“You say it’s “racist” to even speak of these issues, it’s not racism, it’s realism. I have no time for you and your virtue signalling change the date crap. Your voice is only loud when you want to play the victim.”

“Personally I’ll keep the date, some of the good memories I have is from that date, you see I spent most Australia Days with my nan, she would have BBQ’s where family and friends would get togeather and play cricket and laugh, us kids would play and play, I never wanted those days to end. My nan always taught me that it was about unity not division, she taught me not to hate.”

XYZ Quote of the Day.

Australia Day

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After weeks of pounding heat and hardly any rain (3 mm since before Christmas) last night we had one of those huge storms that dumped 33 mm of rain. It just kept raining for most of the night. There is water in the creek again, and you can almost watch the land greening up.

So here is my favourite Australian poem for Australia Day.

The love of field and coppice
Of green and shaded lanes,
Of ordered woods and gardens
Is running in your veins.
Strong love of grey-blue distance,
Brown streams and soft, dim skies
I know, but cannot share it,
My love is otherwise.

I love a sunburnt country,
A land of sweeping plains,
Of ragged mountain ranges,
Of droughts and flooding rains.
I love her far horizons,
I love her jewel-sea,
Her beauty and her terror
The wide brown land for me!

The stark white ring-barked forests,
All tragic to the moon,
The sapphire-misted mountains,
The hot gold hush of noon,
Green tangle of the brushes
Where lithe lianas coil,
And orchids deck the tree-tops,
And ferns the warm dark soil.

Core of my heart, my country!
Her pitiless blue sky,
When, sick at heart, around us
We see the cattle die
But then the grey clouds gather,
And we can bless again
The drumming of an army,
The steady soaking rain.

Core of my heart, my country!
Land of the rainbow gold,
For flood and fire and famine
She pays us back threefold.
Over the thirsty paddocks,
Watch, after many days,
The filmy veil of greenness
That thickens as we gaze …

An opal-hearted country,
A wilful, lavish land
All you who have not loved her,
You will not understand
though Earth holds many splendours,
Wherever I may die,
I know to what brown country
My homing thoughts will fly.

**

Happy Australia Day!

Church is Framily

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Photo by Larm Rmah on Unsplash

At the start of each year various groups propose the “Word of the Year”. The winner in Australia was a bit of an abstruse term, “milkshake duck”, which you will have to look up for yourself if you are interested.

A word that was mentioned a bit also was framily. Framily is a group of friends who become close and know each other like a family- or at least a more ideal version of family than is the reality for many people.

What a great word to describe the church! Most of us are not related biologically but we choose to do life together.

Churches have common goals and a central focus- that’s a framily.

We care for one another and help each other- that’s a framily

We like to hang out together- that’s a framily.

Maybe the idea of family carried too much baggage for some people to relate to. But we can all be framily together.

And that other church across town, maybe we can be framily with them too.

And those people who are a bit weird and live in that part of town might like to be framily with us and Jesus. Maybe we could invite them to join the party.

Framily- what a great word!

Jo Nova: “Free Energy” Costs Too Much

Jo Nova writes:

The Mystery: The most resource rich nation on Earth has the highest electricity prices?!

Ask anyone and get confused: It’s poles and wires, gaming of the system by capitalist pigs, excessive taxes, privatization, and record gas prices. The CleanEnergy Council  tells us that Australia has one of the longest electricity networks in the world — we need lots of poles! And so we do. But once upon a time Australia had the cheapest electricity in the world and we still had lots of poles. Not only were miles of poles and wires, there were also capitalist pigs, excessive taxes, and privatized generators. There were wild gas price spikes too, (during which we probably just burned more coal).

Evidently, something else has changed. Something seismic that wiped out all the bids below $50/MWh. 

Perhaps it has something to do with the 2,106 turbines in 79 wind farms that on random windy days might make 4,325MW that didn’t exist in Australia in 1999 when electricity was cheap and our total national wind power was 2.3 megawatts?

Another clue might be the 1.8 million new solar PV installations, which theoretically generate 7 gigawatts of electricity at noon on cloudless days if all the panels have been cleaned. Back in 2007, we had 14MW.

But of course, cause and effect are devilishly difficult. The one thing we know for sure is that even though sunlight and moving air is free, there is no country on Earth with lots of solar and wind power and cheap electricity.

Any day now, renewables are going to make electricity cheap, but when that happens, it’ll be a world first.

See the graph: the more renewables we have the more we pay…

Cost of electricity, countries, graph, renewables capacity.

….

Source: Paul Homewood at NotalotofpeopleKnowthat inspired graphs by Johnathon Drake, and Willis Eschenbach, and Dave Rutledge, similar to this one. This particular graph came via Judith Sloan in The Australian, though I can’t seem to find the exact link.

 We’re high achievers price-wise

Australia is far above the trend-line.  Our electricity is even more expensive than it should be for the amount of renewables we have. At a guess this might be because other nations have more “hydro” in their renewable mix and less wind and solar.  Or they have access to nuclear power (like all the EU countries). It may be made worse by the way our energy markets are managed, the profusion of bureaucracies, the subsidies and rebates, the renewable energy target, or the overlapping state and federal green aims. It also may be that in our smaller market we have a few big players gaming a volatile, complicated market. Stability may cost more here, due to the fragility of our network.

Don’t blame wind and solar… oh, wait

To isolate the effect, this graph from Euan Mearns takes out the “hydropower” and biomass aspect and just looks at wind and solar. Spot the trend:

(Note that “Aust” means Austria, not Australia)

Europe, renewables, countries, cost of electricity, graph.

Figure 1 The Y-axis shows residential electricity prices for the second half of 2014 from Eurostat. The X-axis installed wind + solar capacity for 2014 as reported in the 2015 BP statistical review normalised to W per capita using population data for 2014 as reported by the UN.

As Euarn Mearns says, there’s more than one variable at work here, but the inescapable conclusion is the countries with the highest levels of renewables pay the highest prices.    h/t Don B.

Is that another 10 cent price rise coming?

According to wikipedia our wind power capacity is set rise 250% or something crazy (I’m skeptical):

From wiki wind power in Australia–  As of May 2017 a further 12328 MW of capacity was proposed or committed.[2] “AEMO Planning and Forecasting – General Information Page”. Retrieved 7 June 2017.

For a population of 24 million that means we would add another 500 watts/capita. Eyeballing the trendline in the graph,  prices would rise by another 10c/KWhr. (Don’t try to unpack the x and y units exactly and calculate it. That’s another story.)

Say it again: there is no country on Earth with lots of solar and wind power and cheap electricity.

REFERENCES

Moran, Alan (2017) The Finkel Report’s Recommendations on the Future Security of the National Electricity Market:
Impacts on the Australian Economy and Australian Consumers, Regulation Economics.